วันจันทร์ที่ 28 กันยายน พ.ศ. 2552

Conjecture on Economic Cycles

Introduction

Economic cycles do not occur independently of human behavior, but it is human behavior that causes the cycles. Based on historical observations, the behaviors and thus the cycles are predictable.

To create the behavior of the economic conditions and economic conditions reinforces the behavior. Economic environments are the result of attitudes and behaviors are the result of the economic environment. The two are an inseparable part of the holographicSystem and no one is independent of the others.

In addition, sows an economic environment with the condition of the abundance of seeds for the opposite condition of scarcity. Frequency tends to result in complacency, arrogance and feelings of entitlement and this in turn change behaviors that results in the waste of resources.

In short, we are creating through our collective behavior of our economic cycles.

Wealth Creation

Economic boom cycles is whenProsperity are generated. Wealth is created when resources are manipulated so that the resulting perceived value is greater than the sum of its parts. That is, the new "agreement" leads to the result to be worth more than the sum of the components.

The verdict of the value is a collective by the company. In theory, the society is common to call the correct one. A resource that higher profits if it is put to use in a purchase order, the required resources of bids from alternativeless profitable uses.

Unfortunately, the society has not always make the right decisions. Sometimes, opportunity costs or neglected the value of the new scheme is wrong.

But despite its shortcomings, the collective social verdict is far better than a central authority to set the values. At the time of collecting the information, analyzed, decisions are made and implemented, it is too late. For each resource, there is a veritable constellation used. Thecentral authority would have the vast majority of them identified and established at reasonable prices. The fact that economies suffer with central economic authorities show a lack of goods and services, what I mean.

Wealth Destruction

As can be created wealth destroyed or scattered. Resources are used and in a way that the outcome is worth less than the sum of the parts. As before, the company has a collective decision on the value ofResult.

The company also seems to sometimes value judgments that seem to follow a certain karmic law to make. For example, a teacher decides for all students in the class type A, regardless of merit. This will keep working and studying conditions. The company would then discount the value of A. That is, the perceived value of an A in the class of this teacher would be worthless.

Wealth appears to be some kind of merit are entitled attached to it. It has for riches, therebe tied into a heap of merit. And the pile of credit is similar to a pile of leaves can be picked up or blown by the wind. Moreover, if wealth is given or purchased without the accompaniment of his merits, as it seems to disappear. As the example of the unearned A above shows.

The boom and bust cycles seem to be through the creation of wealth and destruction cycles. And these cycles seem to be brought to the human collective behavior.

Policy andMachiavelli

Machiavelli says in "The Prince" is that it is better to control the fear rather than love. The reason for this is that it is much easier to make someone a fear that you love you.

Even in "The Prince", he said that another method is bound to keep control, benefit by receiving some. In his time it was the granting of some position and / or country. In our time it is a system of entitlements under the control of politicians.

TheClaims are checked, the voters of the two above mentioned methods. You are bound by the politicians by the entitlement benefits and the fear that they will let go of control. Fear of loss of rights is used to secure votes. The voters now vote for their services.

The problem is that sometimes claims to reduce or remove altogether the consequences of bad behavior. And this at times, still seems to encourage bad behavior. The result is thatSociety promotes collective action and counter-productive subsidies. The increase in bad behavior leads to even greater demands on resources, which decreases further and the collected heap further wealth creation.

In addition, those who make the least, if ever, consume the majority of the resources. It is reported that pays 40% of the U.S. population consumes no taxes at all or the majority of public moneys. The top 50% of wealth creators offer more than 90%tax revenues.

Also, not all consumers of public resources, the lowest in the areas of the economic scale. There are legions of entrepreneurs, consultants, special programs (often by consultants and contractors to run) and special interest groups that have disappeared from the public money. In many cases, but not all of these resources would be better used elsewhere.

Tax policy

Claims are used to control the lower areas of the economic scale. Tocontrolled it at the other end tax policies are to be used. Tax laws are written in a complicated criminal and seizure powers. However, for orchestrating this at the top of the economic use of the spectrum their wealth and influence of its product, the cutting of custom loop holes. These gaps can have relationships with politicians. They are often bought with campaign contributions by various means that the contribution laws skirt.

The result is a very complex tax system thatis unfair and expensive to administer, both for the government and the citizen. The system consumes a lot of time and money. It is also prone to abuse.

Middle Class Squeeze

With both ends of the economic spectrum under control, those in the middle are trapped. They are not rich enough to purchase the political influence or poor enough to receive the entitlements. In addition, they cannot  afford the investment schemes or professional services needed to skirt the Tax laws. So it is this segment of society that is concerned with relatively high taxes. Unfortunately, this group is a high percentage of the true innovators together to create wealth.

All Fall Down

Due to the above conditions, we have jointly created an economic collapse is inevitable. Resources are wasted and repeatedly used to support ineffective social programs and / or outdated enterprises, rather than used to financeInnovation.

In addition, there is a system of rights promotes and subsidizes bad behavior and discouraging good behavior such as hard work, risk taking and save. After all, why everyone that if you're going to be taken by the government. Also, why all that, if the fruits of your labor will be confiscated.

The collapse comes when the creation of wealth are not as good. The funding for entitlement programs dry up. Large deficits are createdGovernment is trying in vain to rescue the system. But eventually, despite the efforts falls down the system.

As always, the company again makes the claim in value. According to this ruling is very influenced by the environment in which it is made, the value of many components is greatly reduced. This includes measured values of the promises of politicians and other government officials made.

The Rise of the Phoenix

But, as with the cycles of abundance, the cyclethe scarcity affects new behaviors and influences. Decisions will be more thoughtful and less wasted resources. The collapse has served to clear away dead wood and make way for new growth. The system of claims is almost over, strangled by the lack of resources, created a new class of innovators and wealth creation begins anew.

And the cycle repeats ...



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